The Reserve Bank of India has revised its FY2026-27 GDP growth forecast downward to 6.6% from 6.9%, citing risks arising from the ongoing conflict in West Asia and its impact on global commodity markets.

Announcing the June monetary policy, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said that elevated energy and commodity prices, along with supply disruptions linked to the geopolitical situation in West Asia, are expected to weigh on economic activity.

The central bank also highlighted several downside risks to growth, including prolonged global supply-chain disruptions, increased volatility in international financial markets, and weather-related uncertainties.

Despite these concerns, the RBI noted that India's domestic economy has remained resilient so far. According to the Governor, several high-frequency indicators suggest that economic activity has largely remained stable since the onset of the conflict.